DairyBusiness Update for 9.12.13
As part of the ongoing effort to revitalize and build awareness of the dairy industry’s iconic REAL® Seal, the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) is inviting the public to help choose the name that will be given to a cartoon character modeled after the logo. The character greets those who go to www.realseal.com and will be used in other applications in the future.
Throughout the summer, NMPF used the REAL Seal website and Facebook page to gather submissions for the naming contest. More than 110 individual suggestions were entered. After a review process, the three most fitting candidates were selected. They are:
• Dairyus – Submitted by Kathryn in Clermont, IA (honorable mentions to Ed in Tipton, IA, and Joe in Washington, DC, for alternate spellings).
• Milkdrop – Submitted separately by Roger in Franklin, KY, and Cecelia in Amelia, VA.
• Roscow – submitted by Gavin in Fairfax, VA (honorable mention to Sara in East Syracuse, NY, for an alternate spelling).
To choose among these three finalists, voters can visit www.realseal.com to select a favorite. The campaign is also being promoted at the Seal’s Facebook page, www.facebook.com/REALSealDairy. The online voting link will be open through Tuesday, Nov. 5, which is Election Day 2013. Only one vote per computer will be allowed. The result will be announced Nov. 13 at the NMPF annual meeting in Phoenix.
USDA’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released Sept.12, reduced projected 2013 milk production estimates from a month earlier, but 2014 production estimates were unchanged.
• 2013 production and marketings were projected at 201.8 billion lbs. and 200.8 billion lbs., respectively. Each are down about 300 million lbs. from last month’s projections. If realized, 2013 production and marketings would be up less than 1% from 2012.
• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 204.5 billion lbs. and 203.6 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up about 1.3% from 2013.
Product price forecasts were mostly higher, with strong export demand and tightening supplies supporting increases for nonfat dry milk (NDM), butter and cheese prices in 2013 and 2014. The whey price forecast was unchanged for 2013, but raised for 2014.
With increased product prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2013 and 2014 were higher. The all-milk price was forecast at $19.70-$19.90/cwt. for 2013; and $19.35-$20.35/cwt. for 2014. Read more …
Beef price outlook steady, strong
USDA’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates report left the 2013-2014 beef price projections unchanged. Steer prices are projected in a range of $122-$128/cwt. for the final quarter of 2013, and in a range of $126-$136/cwt. for all of 2014.
USDA raised 2013 beef production estimates, citing higher cow and bull slaughter. For 2014, the beef production forecast is raised, as higher second-half production increases more than offset a reduced first-half forecast. Partly offsetting the increase in later-year marketings and relatively high early-year cow slaughter is a small reduction in carcass weights.
Corn, soybean price outlooks diverge
With input from the September USDA Crop Production report, also released Sept. 12, the projected season-average farm price for corn was lowered 10¢ at both ends of the range, to $4.40-$5.20/bushel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2013/14 is forecast at $11.50-$13.50/bushel, up $1.15/bushel on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $360-$400/ton, up $55/ton at the midpoint.
The Crop Production report forecasts 2013 corn production at 13.8 billion bushels, a new U.S. production record. Yields are expected to average 155.3 bushels per acre. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 89.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 2% from 2012.
Soybean production is forecast at 3.15 billion bushels, the fourth largest harvest on record. Area for harvest is forecast at 76.4 million acres, the second largest harvested area on record. Yields are expected to average 41.2 bushels per acre.
All cotton production is forecast down 1% from last month and down 26% from last year. As a result, the cottonseed harvest was estimated at 4.291 million tons, down about 2% from August’s estimate and the smallest cottonseed harvest since 2009.
Weekly cow slaughter highest since mid-April
USDA estimated 62,600 culled dairy cows were slaughtered under federal inspection during the week ending Aug. 31, the highest weekly total since mid-April. The weekly total brought the 2013 year-to-date total to 2.093 million head, about 50,500 more than the corresponding period a year ago.
Of the weekly total, about 26% (16,200 head) came from USDA’s Zone #9 (Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada). Obviously, most culling came from Arizona and California, since Nevada (29,000) and Hawaii (2,000) had just 31,000 cows combined in 2012.
Another 15% (9,700) were culled from Zone #3 (Delaware-Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia) during the week ending Aug. 31. The report did not list culling totals in another high cow population area, Zone #5 (Upper Midwest, including Wisconsin).
MARKETS: Butter jumps 8¢; Class III futures mixed
Cash cheese took a breather this morning following two sessions of gains on the blocks and one on the barrels, according to DairyBusiness Update associate editor Lee Mielke. Block cheddar remained at $1.84/lb., with 1 bid at $1.83 going unfilled. Barrels held at $1.8125/lb., with no activity.
Buyers were back in butter today, more than doubling Tuesday’s trading and equaling Aug. 27, with 25 carloads trading hands this morning. That sent the price up 8¢, to $1.53/lb., the highest it’s been since June 17, but 31¢ below this day a year ago.
A sale took the Grade A nonfat dry milk price up 1¢ this morning, to $1.83/lb. Ten unfilled bids from yesterday were there again this morning, all at $1.83/lb., but still got no response. Extra Grade remained at $1.78/lb., with no activity.
Today’s market closing prices:
Butter: up 8¢, to $1.53/lb.
Cheddar blocks: unchanged, at $1.84/lb.
Cheddar barrels: unchanged, at $1.8125/lb.
Grade A nonfat dry milk: up 1¢, to $1.83/lb.
Extra Grade nonfat dry milk: unchanged, at $1.78/lb.
Class III milk: -15¢ to +10¢ through December 2014. Based on current CME closing prices, the September-December 2013 average is $17.85/cwt.; with an overall 2013 average of $17.76/cwt.; and a 2014 average of $16.73/cwt.
Corn futures lower but soybeans, meal futures up
Today’s futures prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:
Corn: -1¢ to -6¢ through December 2014, settling in a range of $4.66-$5.05/bushel.
Soybeans: +8¢ to +38¢ through December 2014, with November 2013 through September 2014 contracts settling in a range of $12.44-$13.96/bushel.
Soybean meal: +$4.20 to +$20.00/ton through September 2014. October 2013-September 2014 contracts settled in a range of $385-$449/ton.
• Lee Mielke reports on the importance of strong export growth.
• Mike Hutjens discusses inverted milkfat
USDA announces the October federal order Class I base milk price on Wednesday, Sept. 18, with the September Dairy Outlook also issued that afternoon. The August Milk Production report and the monthly Livestock Slaughter report (including cull dairy cow numbers) are out Thursday, Sept. 19.
Today on Facebook
• Photo of the Day: Doing a great job showing her heifer is Anouk Bons, the oldest daugther of Nico and Lianne Bons (Bons-Holsteins in Holland) at their local show with a Sid x Jasper. ~Photo by Harry Schuiling #HolsteinWorldPOTD
• A Supreme Holstein clean sweep at the All-American: Holsteins claimed Supreme heifer, cow and bred and owned.
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