DairyBusiness Update for May 30, 2013
USDA bumps dairy export outlook up
On the heels of a record-setting fiscal year 2012 (FY ’12), USDA raised forecasts for FY ’13 dairy product exports, projecting $5.3 billion in foreign sales this year. The forecast is up $300 million from a February forecast, and up about $130 million from FY ’12 actual sales of $5.17 billion.
The higher projections are based on stronger global demand, concerns about dryness in Oceania, and lagging milk production in the European Union.
The FY ’13 U.S. dairy import forecast was raised $100 million, to $3.2 billion. The forecast for FY ’13 cheese imports was also raised $100 million, to $1.2 billion. Imports of dairy products are projected higher in part due to higher dairy product prices.
Accelerating world economic growth, lower energy prices and more available credit make the outlook for U.S. ag trade promising in 2013. A favorable exchange rate and solid growth in developing Asia and Latin America will continue to support U.S. exports, despite a strengthening dollar. Visit www.ers.usda.gov/media/1121567/aes78.pdf.
CWT assists with 300,000 lbs. of cheese export sales
Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) accepted three requests for export assistance from Dairy Farmers of America and Northwest Dairy Association (Darigold) to sell 299,829 lbs. of cheddar and gouda cheese to customers in Asia. The product will be delivered June through August 2013.
So far in 2013, CWT has assisted member cooperatives in selling 57.126 million lbs. of cheese, 51.727 million lbs. of butter, 44,092 lbs. of anhydrous milk fat and 218,258 lbs. of whole milk powder to 31 countries on six continents. These sales are the equivalent of 1.656 billion lbs. of milk on a milkfat basis.
Mark Stephenson, director of dairy policy analysis at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Bob Cropp, professor emeritus, University of Wisconsin-Extension, offer their monthly podcast, providing an update on the current dairy situation, and an outlook for things to come. To view the podcast, visit http://dairy.wisc.edu/PubPod/Podcast/Outlook/Index.html
USDA study examines fluid milk consumption decline
Since 1970 alone, U.S. per capita fluid milk consumption has fallen from 0.96 cup-equivalents to about 0.61 cup-equivalents per day. A new USDA study – “Why Are Americans Consuming Less Fluid Milk?”– examines trends in U.S. fluid milk consumption, including average portion sizes and generational differences in the frequency of milk drinking, to investigate possible explanations for the continued decreases.
Data from USDA dietary intake surveys conducted between the 1970s and 2000s show that Americans – on occasions when they drink fluid milk – continue to consume about 1 cup (8 fluid ounces). Given the stability of portions, trends showing decreases in per capita consumption since the 1970s mainly reflect changes in consumption frequency. Between the 1970s and 2000s, people have become less apt to drink fluid milk at mealtimes, especially with midday and nighttime meals, reducing the total number of consumption occasions:
• Between surveys in 1977-78 and 2007-08, the share of preadolescent children who did not drink fluid milk on a given day rose from 12% to 24%, while the share that drank milk three or more times per day dropped from 31% to 18%.
• Between 1977-78 and 2007-08, the share of adolescents and adults who did not drink fluid milk on a given day rose from 41% to 54%, while the share that drank milk three or more times per day dropped from 13% to 4%.
In a week that saw raw milk advocates win a court case in Wisconsin, two national dairy organizations are urging Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval to veto legislation that would allow the sales of raw milk directly to consumers, arguing that the food safety risks of the measure represent too great a gamble with the public’s health.
In a letter sent Tuesday to Sandoval, the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) said that Assembly Bill No. 209, which is awaiting review by the governor, would greatly increase Nevadans’ risk of serious illness because of the potentially dangerous bacteria that are often present in milk that has not been properly pasteurized. Gov. Sandoval has until the end of the week to either sign or veto the assembly bill.
MARKETS: Products unchanged; Class III futures steady to slightly lower
Today's market closing prices:
Butter: unchanged at $1.54/lb.
Cheddar blocks: unchanged at $1.74/lb.
Cheddar barrels: unchanged at $1.7075/lb.
Grade A nonfat dry milk: unchanged at $1.68/lb.
Extra Grade nonfat dry milk: unchanged at $1.70/lb.
Class III milk: -13¢ to +1¢ through December 2013. Based on current CME closing prices, the 2013 average is $18.12/cwt.; and the 2014 average is $16.93/cwt.
Corn slightly lower; soybeans, meal futures mixed in a narrow range
Corn: -11¢ to -3¢ per bushel through May 2014. The remaining 2013 average is $6.00/bu.
Soybeans: -6¢ to +3¢ per bushel through May 2014. The remaining 2013 average is $13.91/bu.
Soybean meal: -$3.50 to +$1.80/ton through September 2014. The remaining 2013 average is $401.00/ton.
Yesterday in DairyBusiness Weekly:
• Algae: The feed of the future?
• Sassy Cow builds dairy, name
• CDC urges CDFA to increase dairy producer prices
• Vaccine ‘myth-takes’
• Gearing up for National Holstein Convention
• Red & White Calf Raffle
• 10th annual Premier National Junior Event to spotlight dairy youth
• Show and sale calendar
• Check out our industry briefs, view our product spotlight, see what’s happening on social media, listen to our podcasts and more!
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