DairyProfit Update for Aug. 30, 2012
USDA boosts FY ’12 dairy export outlook; FY ’13 to dip a little
Compared to May’s outlook, USDA raised its quarterly forecast for fiscal year 2012 (FY ’12) dairy exports by $300 million in August. At $5.0 billion, FY ’12 dairy exports would easily surpass FY 2011’s record high of $4.5 billion.
USDA also issued its first forecast for FY ’13 dairy exports, at $4.8 billion. High feed costs are expected to reduce producer margins, leading to lower milk output and reduced dairy product supplies. That will result in a reduction of export volumes, leading to the $200 million decline from FY ’12.
The FY ’12 U.S. dairy import forecast was raised $100 million, to $3.0 billion, due to higher values and volumes. The forecast for FY ’12 cheese imports was reduced to $1.0 billion.
It its first forecast for FY ’13 imports, USDA forecast slight increases for cheese and total dairy products, at $1.1 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively. Butter, casein and miscellaneous milk products will lead import demand.
Despite a forecast for a modest appreciation in 2012 and 2013, the dollar will be relatively weak. That, and low interest rates, provide continued inexpensive credit for financing trade. Higher expected world growth, lower energy prices and more available credit make the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade promising in 2013.
To see the quarterly outlook report, visit http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/current/AES/AES-08-30-2012.pdf.
Cornell Dairy Executive Program seeking applications
Applications are now being accepted for the next Cornell Dairy Executive Program (CDEP) class. CDEP brings together professionals from the agricultural community to invest in leadership and management skills of progressive dairy managers. The program focuses on business planning, financial management, human resource management and risk management.
Participants develop strategic business plans throughout the year, network, participate in roundtable discussions and perform individual studies. Class X begins Dec. 2, 2012. Visit www.ansci.cornell.edu/prodairy/dairyexec/ for more information.
MARKETS: Cheese, Class III futures dip
Today's market closing prices:
Butter: unchanged, at $1.84/lb.
Cheddar blocks: down 1.25¢, to $1.8575/lb.
Cheddar barrels: down 0.25¢, to¢, to $1.8075/lb.
Grade A nonfat dry milk: unchanged, at $1.70/lb.
Extra Grade nonfat dry milk: unchanged, at $1.6250/lb.
Class III milk: 2¢ to 34¢ lower through May 2013. Based on current CME closing prices, the average for September-December 2012 is $19.93/cwt.; the full year 2012 average is $17.46/cwt.; and the 2013 average is $18.78/cwt.
Corn lower, but soybeans, meal futures up
Corn: -3¢ to -5¢, December 2012 through September 2013. The September-December 2012 average is $8.10/bu.; 2013 average is $7.45/bu.
Soybeans: +6¢ to +17¢ through September 2013. The September-November 2012 average is $17.67/bu.; 2013 average is $15.50/bu.
Soybean meal: +$4.10 to +$8.00/ton through September 2013. The September-December 2012 average is $540.60/ton; 2013 average is $437.35/ton.
• This little lady and calf say "Bring it on Isaac"
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