Gould: MILC projection update (May 14)

Lower futures prices for feedstuffs could reduce Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) payments, according to latest estimates from Brian Gould, University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics professor. Using May 14 settlement futures prices for MILC-related contracts, Gould revised estimates for MILC payments for the remainder of 2012 and early 2013 (see below).  He currently expects MILC payments to peak this spring and summer, topping $1.00/cwt. in April and July. Estimates are always subject to change. To see a new summary spreadsheet, go to the UW-Madison “Understanding Dairy Markets” website: http://future.aae.wisc.edu/collection/software/current_MILC_est.xls.

 

2012-2013 MILC payment forecasts

 

2012 MILC payment forecasts (and actual payments*)

based on futures settlement prices, May 14, 2012

                          ($ per hundredweight)

                  Forecast                     Predicted 

                    Target     Forecast      MILC

Month         Mover       Mover       Payment

Jan. ’12        17.53*        18.80*        0.0000*

Feb. ’12        17.90*        17.03*        0.3895*

Mar. ’12        18.14*        16.30*         0.8262*

Apr. ’12        18.29         15.66*         1.1821

May ’12         17.51        15.85*         0.7478

June ’12       17.26        15.24           0.9088

July ’12        16.98        14.70           1.0271

Aug. ’12       16.46        14.67           0.8061

Sep. ’12        15.97        15.13          0.3765

Oct. ’12         15.78        15.54         0.1100

Nov. ’12        15.63        15.70         0.0000

Dec. ’12         15.50       15.47          0.0000

Jan. ’13         15.44       15.68         0.0000

Feb. ’13         15.43       15.53        0.0000

Mar. ’13         15.44        15.41        0.0122

*Actual Target, Target Mover, MILC Payment

Brian W. Gould, Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison ( http://future.aae.wisc.edu/collection/software/current_MILC_est.xls)