USDA Jan. 11 corn/soy summaries

A summary of several USDA reports released on Jan. 11:

 

2012 Crop Production Summary

January 2013 Crop Production report

World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates report

Grain Stocks report

 

U.S. corn for grain production in 2012 was estimated at 10.8 billion bushels, up 1% from the Nov. 1 forecast, but 13% less than 2011. The average U.S. yield was estimated at 123.4 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from the November forecast, but 23.8 bushels below the 2011 average yield of 147.2. 

Corn planted area, at 97.2 million acres, was up 6% from 2011. This represents the largest acreage since 1937. Area harvested for grain was estimated at 87.4 million acres, down slightly from the November forecast, but up 4% from 2011. 

Estimated 2012 corn yields were down sharply across many of the major corn-producing states due to widespread drought and extreme temperatures that occurred in June and July. Yield declines of 30 bushels or more compared with 2011 were estimated in several sates. In contrast, yields are up across much of the Southeast and Southern Plains following the adverse weather conditions of 2011. Record yields are estimated in Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Wyoming. 

The 2012 corn objective yield data indicated the lowest number of ears per acre since 2005 for the combined 10 objective yield states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin). 

Projected corn use for 2012/13 was raised, with higher expected feed and residual disappearance more than offsetting reduced prospects for exports.  While stiff competition has limited U.S. corn exports, higher domestic disappearance leaves the balance sheet historically tight and is expected to support continued strong and volatile prices well into summer, particularly in the domestic cash markets. Corn ending stocks are projected lower. The season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at $6.80-$8.00/bushel. 

Soybean production in 2012 totaled 3.01 billion bushels, up 1% from the Nov. 1 forecast, but down 3% from 2011. It is the seventh largest total on record. The average yield per acre was estimated at 39.6 bushels, 0.3 bushel above the Nov. 1 forecast, but 2.3 bushels below last year’s yield. Harvested area was up 3% from 2011 to 76.1 million acres and is the third highest on record. 

Soybean meal domestic consumption was raised in line with projected gains in meat production, especially for pork and poultry. Soybean exports are unchanged. Soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 135 million bushels, up 5 million from last month. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average soybean price is lowered 30¢ at the midpoint and narrowed to $13.50-$15.00/bushel. The soybean meal price was projected at $430-$460/ton, down $10 on both ends of the range.

 

Corn, soybean stocks down 17% from a year ago

Corn stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2012 totaled 8.03 billion bushels, down 17% from a year earlier. Of the total stocks, 4.59 billion bushels were stored on farms, down 26% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.44 billion bushels, were down 1% from a year ago.

The September-November 2012 indicated disappearance is 3.74 billion bushels, compared with 3.84 billion bushels during the same period last year. 

Soybeans stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2012 totaled 1.97 billion bushels, also down 17% from a year earlier. Soybean stocks stored on farms totaled 910 million bushels, down 20% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.06 billion bushels, were down 14% from last December. Indicated disappearance for September-November 2012 totaled a record high 1.22 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period a year earlier.