USDA June dairy outlook
The theme of this week’s USDA Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook report mirrored the World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released June 12. (Additional quarterly milk price estimates were added. USDA estimates compared to current CME futures prices are provided below.)
• 2013 production and marketings were projected at 201.8 billion lbs. and 200.8 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2013 production and marketings would be up about 0.7% from 2012.
• 2014 production and marketings were projected at 204.5 billion lbs. and 203.6 billion lbs., respectively. If realized, 2014 production and marketings would be up about 1.3% from 2013.
As a result of a lower cheese price forecast, the 2013 Class III price outlook was reduced to a range of $17.80-$18.20/cwt.; the Class IV price is $18.15-$18.65/cwt., as lower butter prices more than offset higher nonfat dry milk prices. The all-milk price was forecast at $19.60 to $20.00/cwt.
For 2014, the butter price forecast is lowered as stocks remain high, but other product prices were unchanged. The Class III price forecast is $17.00-$18.00/cwt.; the Class IV price is forecast at $17.75-$18.85/cwt.; the all-milk price is projected between $18.95-$19.95/cwt.