Gould: April 13 MILC projection update

Using April 13 settlement futures prices for MILC-related contracts, Dr. Brian Gould, University of Wisconsin-Madison Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics professor, revised estimates for MILC payments for the remainder of 2012 (see below).  He currently expects MILC payments will continue through September, peaking in June and July. Estimates are always subject to change. To see a new summary spreadsheet, go to the UW-Madison “Understanding Dairy Markets” website: http://future.aae.wisc.edu/collection/software/current_MILC_est.xls.

2012 MILC payment forecasts

2012 MILC payment forecasts (and actual payments*)

based on futures settlement prices, April 13, 2012

                          ($ per hundredweight)

                  Forecast                     Predicted 

                    Target     Forecast      MILC

Month         Mover       Mover       Payment

Jan. ’12        17.53*        18.80*        0.0000*

Feb. ’12        17.90*       17.03*        0.3895*

Mar. ’12        18.27        16.30*         0.8877

Apr. ’12        17.59        15.66          0.8683

May ’12        17.58        15.80          0.8011

June ’12        17.49        14.97         1.1337

July ’12        17.37        15.09          1.0278

Aug. ’12        16.98        15.69         0.5803

Sep. ’12        16.55        16.35          0.0891

Oct. ’12         16.38        16.42         0.0000

Nov. ’12        16.22        16.40         0.0000

Dec. ’12        16.06        16.37          0.0000

*Actual Target, Target Mover, MILC Payment

Brian W. Gould, Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison ( http://future.aae.wisc.edu/collection/software/current_MILC_est.xls)