In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued June 9, milk production for 2023 is forecast lower than last month on slower growth in milk-per-cow than previously expected. Milk production for 2024 is unchanged from last month.
For 2023, commercial exports are lowered on both fat and skim-solids bases. Fat basis exports are lowered on recent data and primarily lower projections for butter. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered on recent data and as weaker whey and lactose shipments are expected to more than offset higher exports of nonfat/skim milk powders. For 2024, exports are unchanged on a fat basis but are lowered on a skim-solids basis. Imports for 2023 on a fat basis are raised on stronger expected demand for butter partly offset by weaker cheese imports. Imports on a skim-solids basis are lowered primarily on lower projected milk protein concentrate imports. Import forecasts for 2024 are unchanged.
For 2023, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and anticipated demand, while cheese and whey price forecasts are lowered. With the changes in product prices, the Class III price is lowered, and the Class IV price is raised. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.95 per cwt. For 2024, prices are reduced for cheese and whey but raised for NDM. Butter prices are unchanged from the previous month. The Class III price is forecast lower, while a higher Class IV price is expected. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $19.65 per cwt.
The full report may be found at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0623.pdf
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