World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Dairy

Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect revisions in production and cold storage data. For 2024, milk production is lowered due to a smaller dairy cow inventory and slower growth in output per cow. On a fat basis, the domestic use forecast is unchanged from last month. Fat-basis imports are raised on higher imports of a number of products. Fat-basis exports are lowered primarily on lower expected cheese and butter shipments. On a skim-solids basis, the domestic use forecast is raised. Import forecasts are raised, while exports, primarily of cheese, nonfat/skim milk powder, and whey, are lowered. For 2024, the butter price forecast is raised on recent data and strong demand. The cheese price is also raised on recent price strength. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are both lowered based on recent prices. Class III prices are projected higher based on higher cheese prices, while Class IV prices are lower, as the lower NDM price more than offsets the higher butter price. The all milk price is projected higher at $21.25 per cwt.

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