The Milk Check: Where did demand go? And how will prices bounce back?

On June 12, we brought a group together to share perspectives on the dairy markets, along with thoughts on what we might expect moving forward.

And there wasn’t a strong consensus. Josh thinks supply-side factors point to a relatively quick supply-side response playing out over months that produces some price upticks to offer some cover in the short term.

Ted Jr. thinks price recovery will be slow and has his own counterarguments against the expectation of further production slowdowns.

Jake feels bullish about spot prices on every product right now, but bearish in relation to current futures prices. Gus thinks dairy prices would need to climb above current futures prices to $19 or $20 milk before dairy farmers started feeling good again.

And T3 worries that any recovery in the second half of 2023 will act as a “head fake” leading into fallout from macroeconomic weakness in 2024.