In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued August 12, the milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month. The cow inventories are raised for both years based on the most recent data in the Milk Production report. The growth in output per cow is also increased for 2025 and 2026.
Fat basis imports for 2025 are reduced from last month, mainly on butterfat products. Skim-solids basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher milk protein concentrates. For 2026, imports are raised on skim-solids basis reflecting higher imports of milk protein concentrates but are unchanged on a fat basis.
The 2025 fat basis export forecast is raised on higher expected shipments of butter and cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2025 is also raised on more exports of dried skim milk products and whey products. The fat basis export forecast for 2026 is raised on higher exports of cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2026 is raised primarily on higher shipments of whey products, lactose, and dried skim milk products.
The price forecast for 2025 butter is lowered from the previous month based on recent price weakness. The 2025 price forecasts for cheese and whey are unchanged, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) is raised. The Class III price is unchanged based on cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is lowered on lower butter more than offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price is unchanged at $22.00 per cwt.
For 2026, the price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised based on firm demand from domestic and international markets. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price is unchanged from last month and the Class IV price is increased. The all milk price is also raised to $21.90 per cwt.
The full report may be found here https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde825.pdf
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