Milk supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect revisions to estimates of milk production and stocks in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates issued March 8, 2023. For 2023, milk production is forecast higher on a larger cow inventory. Output per cow is unchanged from last month.
On both fat- and skim-solids bases, imports for 2023 are raised, while exports are reduced. Cheese prices are lowered as supplies are expected to be relatively large and domestic demand is projected to be relatively soft. Butter prices are raised on recent data. Nonfat dry milk prices are unchanged, with a weaker first quarter offset by a stronger fourth quarter. Whey prices are raised on recent price observations and stronger expected demand.
With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected lower, while Class IV prices are projected higher. The all milk price is projected lower at 20.45 per cwt. The full report can be found at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0323.pdf
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