USDA Issues WASDE Report for November – All Milk Price Estimate for 2023 Lowered to $22.60

 

The milk production forecast for 2022 is raised from last month, while 2023 production is unchanged. The dairy cow inventory for both years is lowered on recent published data but output per cow is raised. Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are lowered, driven by recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and butterfat products. Forecasts for 2023 fat basis imports are lowered on weaker butterfat products, while skim-solids basis imports are raised on cheese.

Exports on a fat basis for 2022 are lowered on weaker expected exports of cheese and butterfat products but raised for 2023. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 on higher expected exports of skim milk powders (SMP) and lactose and for 2023 on higher SMP and whey exports.

For 2022, forecasts for butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are lowered on current prices and larger milk supplies. Whey prices are unchanged. Both Class III and WASDE-630-5 Class IV prices are lowered on weaker product prices. For 2023, the price forecast for butter is raised, but lowered for cheese and NDM. Whey prices are unchanged. With lower cheese and NDM prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $25.50 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is lowered to $22.60 per cwt.