Milk supply and use estimates for 2023 are adjusted to reflect December domestic and trade data.
For 2024, milk production is lowered due to lower expected output per cow, which is partly offset by higher cow inventories. On a fat basis, domestic use is raised as a more rapid pace of disappearance during the fourth quarter of 2023 carries over into 2024. Fat basis exports are raised, based on higher expected butter and cheese exports, as the United States is expected to be competitive on the international market for those products. Fat basis imports are lowered. Skim-solids basis domestic use is also raised based on higher-than-expected disappearance in fourth-quarter 2023. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered to reflect the strength of domestic prices as domestic demand is stronger.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2024 are all raised based on recent price strength, tighter supplies of milk, and stronger domestic use. Class III and Class IV prices in 2024 are also raised based on higher product prices. The all milk price estimate for 2023 is reduced to $20.48 per cwt based on reported data through December. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is raised to $20.95 per cwt.
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