Purdue University Study: USMCA Helps Keep Food Prices Lower for American Families

Analysis released by the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA shows North American trade supports consumers, farmers, food makers and stronger supply chains.

As food costs remain a strain for U.S. families, a new Purdue University study released today finds that North American trade has helped lower U.S. food prices and could play a key role in keeping grocery affordability in check ahead of the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement , established in 2020. The study specifically finds that tariff reductions under North American trade agreements have helped lower food prices for U.S. households, generating estimated savings of approximately $700 per year in today’s dollars — equivalent to roughly 7% of total household food expenditures.

The study, USMCA Affordability Study: Effect of North American Trade on U.S. Food Prices, was commissioned by the Corn Refiners Association in partnership with the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA. The findings underscore that the affordability benefits of North American trade are especially important for lower-income households, which spend a greater share of their income on food and are often the most vulnerable to rising grocery costs.

“Food affordability remains one of the top concerns for American families, and this study makes clear that USMCA is part of the solution,” said John Bode, president and CEO of the Corn Refiners Association. “By strengthening agricultural supply chains, expanding market access and reducing unnecessary costs, USMCA has helped provide consumers with year-round access to a wider variety of affordable food products. As the joint review approaches, maintaining a strong USMCA is critical for U.S. households, farmers, food manufacturers and rural communities.”

According to the Purdue analysis, every 1% reduction in tariffs on food products corresponded with an average 2.8% decrease in consumer food prices over a decade. The study also warns that without USMCA, tariffs could rise by an average of 7.4% above current levels, effectively eliminating those consumer food-cost savings within 10 years.

In addition to lowering costs, North American trade agreements have supported year-round availability of certain products, expanded consumer choice and helped develop U.S. markets for products that can only be produced seasonally in the United States.

“USMCA supports consumers, producers and strong North American food supply chains,” said Bryan Goodman, a spokesperson for the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA. “Preserving this trilateral agreement is essential to keeping food affordable and supply chains strong across the United States, Mexico and Canada.”

The report further highlights how expanded North American trade has improved efficiency and stability across agricultural supply chains and benefited export-oriented U.S. agricultural products — such as corn and wheat — that experienced lower domestic prices as trade barriers were eliminated.

The findings come as food inflation remains a leading economic concern for American consumers and as policymakers prepare for the USMCA review process. CRA commissioned the study to evaluate the agreement’s impact on U.S. consumers and the role of North American trade in supporting food affordability, market access and supply-chain stability.

The full study is available HERE.