Congress returns to Washington following the mid-term elections on November 8th on the week of the 14th. This will be for only a short legislative time period of 20 plus days before the new 118th Congress is sworn in on January 3rd 2023. At this point we do not know the outcome of the House and Senate races and who will control either body next year. Recent polls indicate that the House will likely shift to a Republican majority, whereas the Senate remains a toss-up in a number of very tight races in the States of Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona just to name a few. There are also likely to be some surprises.
So Where Does That Leave Us In The Lame Duck Session?
Good question! Sometimes Lame Duck sessions can be very productive—however given the partisanship in the current Congress, don’t bet on it. As always they still have a lot of work to do as Congress is good at kicking the can down the road. A Continuing Resolution (CR) was passed at the end of September to keep the federal government operating until December 16th. It is likely another short term CR will have to be passed until an Omnibus Bill which will include all 12 federal agency appropriation bills can be agreed upon. That may take some time.
The agriculture community is putting a lot of pressure on the Senate to put forth an Ag Immigration Bill. The House as noted in an earlier article passed the Farm Workforce Modernization Act in March of 2021. A major Fly-in, the Agricultural Workforce Reform Fly-In, has been organized by the American Business Immigration Coalition starting on Tuesday November 15th through Thursday the 17th. The business community has as much at stake as our dairy producers and the rest of agriculture as well. The Agricultural Workforce Reform Fly-In will include meetings with Senators and staff as well as a press event on Wednesday the 16th. At the same time there are a number of agriculture “local mobilization” efforts underway in several states to target key Senators. Events have already taken place in seven states including: GA, PA, NC, ME, KA, MO and SD. Others are being planned and will take place soon!
Senators Crapo (R-Idaho) and Bennet (D-Colorado) are working tirelessly to complete language on an ag immigration bill that will be farmer friendly. Of course the Senate Leadership will have to commit to bringing it to the Senate floor for a vote. Other immigration issues are on the table as well including citizenship for DACA residents who came to the U.S. years ago illegally as young children.
The crisis at the U.S. Mexican Border looms over the immigration legislative process like a huge albatross. Most recently an editorial in the Wall Street Journal pointed out that as many as 5 million illegal immigrants have crossed the border since the Biden Administration took office. And this does not include immigrants who are unaccounted for by the U.S Border Patrol. Many members of Congress want the border problem fixed first before considering any immigration legislation.
Problems Ahead!
The road in the next few months is filled with potholes. The Department of Labor has just put out a new H-2A Rule that will change the process for certifying U.S. farmers in hiring foreign guest workers on a temporary basis. The Trump Administration had proposed an H-2A Rule that streamlined the certifying process and had cost-saving measures for farm employers.
The new Rule scheduled to go into effect at the end of this month unfortunately does not. It has several cost-inflating measures built into it. The Cato Institute has identified a number of these problems in the new Rule. The most significant is the new Rule would indirectly cause the H-2A minimum wage for many farmers to increase as it would up the cost of hiring workers and reduce the number of workers available to be hired. Keep in mind the H-2A program is only designed for seasonal workers mainly for fruit and vegetable growers and does not include 12 month year around employees needed on dairy operations. Some dairy farmers do qualify for the temporary use of H-2A workers. However, most importantly the impact on wage rates will have a ripple effect on farm wages across the board. The Cato Institute has estimated that the new Rule end up costing farmers $500 million per year.
In addition USDA’s new data on the Adverse Effect Wage Rate due out at the end of this month will likely increase farm employee wages in 2023.
A well-crafted Ag Labor Immigration Bill could supersede these major problems on ag labor expenses and the availability of a sufficient workforce.
Inflation and Food Costs!
The dairy industry has done its level best to hold inflationary costs for dairy products to a minimum despite labor shortages, high feed and fuel expenses, supply chain disruptions and high costs for about every other farm input. Dairy has seen inflation go above 15% on many of its products. Despite this dairy products are still selling very well and holding their own in the market place. The Cato Institute estimates that the final H-2A Rule will only add significantly to all food costs in the months ahead. This of course will not only impact farmers but consumers as well.
Is Their Hope For An Agriculture Immigration Bill?
The opportunity is there! We just have to keep pushing—hard. I have witnessed the legislative process for many years and things can happen in a hurry. I will keep you updated!
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