Latest market update from AgWest includes a drought and water report

This month’s report includes a Spotlight feature on the effects of the government shutdown on data reporting, and also features a Drought and Water update.

Major commodity insights

AgWest’s outlook for major commodities is summarized below. Visit AgWest’s Industry Insights for an expanded analysis of each industry, monthly economic headlines, relevant data and trends, and additional special reports. Or download a PDF of the complete report here.

Almonds and pistachios

Almond harvest is largely done and the crop will likely come in closer to 2.7 billion tons than USDA’s 3-billion-pound estimate. Pistachio harvest is largely wrapped up and the crop size appears to be just under 1.3 billion pounds.

Apples

Harvest is nearly complete, and early anecdotal reports suggest the 2025 apple crop is likely to come in closer to 135 million boxes than the initial 142 million box estimate. The 2025 pear crop looks to be very large with good quality and a favorable size profile.

Cattle

The cattle industry faced significant market fluctuations in October, with futures markets responding to key developments such as tariffs on Brazilian beef imports, the possibility of reopening the Mexican border for live cattle imports, potential increases in Argentine beef imports, and the absence of critical data reports.

Dairy

The U.S. dairy industry is experiencing a period of significant growth, with the largest herd in recent history driving strong milk production. Although October’s milk production data has not been published due to the government shutdown, it is evident that output remains robust.

Forest products

Lumber prices increased slightly through mid-October as mill curtailments in the Southern U.S. reduced supply. The momentum did not hold, and prices began to soften toward the end of the month.

Hay

Hay demand across the West has been notably sluggish, driven by a combination of factors.

Lemons and oranges

Lemon harvest has wrapped up in the coastal region of California, is about a quarter of the way through in the desert region and is just starting back up in the Central Valley. Navel harvest is just starting and early reports indicate favorable crop conditions, including a large size profile, good quality and volumes on par with 2024 levels.

Potatoes

Potato supply and demand are expected to remain out of balance given 2025 U.S. potato production is estimated at 421 million cwt, nearly matching 2024 levels.

Wheat

The challenges facing U.S. wheat farmers show no signs of easing, as a combination of low prices, rising input costs, and export hurdles continues to squeeze profitability.

Wine and wine grapes

Wine grape harvests across the West wrapped up with notable challenges, especially in California.

About AgWest Farm Credit

AgWest Farm Credit is a financial cooperative with approximately $35 billion in total assets as of 2025. It provides financing and related services to farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses, commercial fishermen, timber producers, rural homeowners, and crop insurance customers in seven Western states. AgWest is part of the 109-year-old Farm Credit System, the nation’s leading provider of credit to agriculture. With 59 locations across the West, AgWest is committed to serving its customers and supporting local communities.