North American agribusiness review October 2024

Al Griffin & Roland Fumasi Rabofinance

 

North American supply chain recovers from weather and labor disruptions. Declines in restaurant demand continue, food inflation ticks higher. Milk production marks 14th consecutive decline in August. Chicken prices remain ahead of year-ago on strong consumer trends. And US potato production forecast adjusted downward for 2024.

This periodical update provides a market outlook for dairy, cattle, wheat, and other key commodities, and gives an overview of what developments to watch in the upcoming months in North America.

Economy: The cutting cycle has started.

Climate: Winter surprise.

Logistics: North American supply chain recovers from weather and labor disruptions.

Consumer: Declines in restaurant demand continue, food inflation ticks higher, and private label has room to grow.

Cattle: Shifting precipitation patterns alter North America cattle supply trends; US beef demand remains strong.

Corn: Inflation Reduction Act extends an opening to Brazilian ethanol imports.

Dairy: Milk production marks 14th consecutive decline in August, but Class III milk price hits 27-month high.

Farm Inputs: Strait of Hormuz: The nutrient highway.

Feed: DDGS prices settling below the five-year average.

Fruits: Apple prices shift from downward to upward trend for some varieties.

Pork: Steady markets as supply and demand remain well-balanced.

Poultry: Chicken prices remain ahead of year-ago on strong consumer trends.

Soybeans: Soybean market under pressure from multiple factors.

Sweeteners: Weather added concerns to the US sugar sector, but all is fine.

Tree Nuts: Mostly bullish trends at the beginning of the 2024/25 marketing year.

Vegetables: US potato production forecast adjusted downward for 2024.

Wheat: Prices low for now, but watch for shifts.

Cotton/Rice: Tropical storms slam southeast, but price support proves fleeting/Record ending stocks for major exporters.

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NA agribusiness review October 2024

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