In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued May 12, milk production for 2024 is forecast above 2023, driven by gains in milk per cow and an additional milking day. Commercial exports on both fat and skim-solids bases are forecast higher than 2023. Gains are expected in butter and milkfat products, non-fat dry milk (NDM), cheese, whey, and lactose. Imports are projected unchanged on a fat basis but higher on a skim-solids basis, with higher imports of cheese, milk proteins, and several other dairy products offset by lower butter fat products. The Class III price is forecast lower on weaker whey prices. The Class IV price is forecast lower as
The 2023 milk production forecast is lowered from the previous month. Cow inventories are raised but growth in milk per cow is slower. Fat-basis exports are lowered from the previous month, mainly on weaker butter and milkfat shipments, offset by stronger cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast is higher on stronger skim milk powder and cheese exports, but partly offset by weaker whey exports. Imports on a skim-solids basis are lowered from last month on lower milk protein imports. Imports on a fat basis are unchanged. Butter and NDM prices are raised from last month on strong demand, while cheese and whey prices are lowered. Based on the changes in component prices, Class III prices are lowered while Class IV prices are raised. The 2023 all milk price is forecast at $20.50 per cwt.
The full report may be found at https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0523.pdf
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