In the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) issued September 11.
The milk production forecast is unchanged for 2026 and lowered for 2027. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories are raised for 2026 and unchanged for 2027. Output per cow is reduced slightly for both 2026 and 2027. For 2026, commercial export forecasts are lowered on a skim-solids basis primarily on reduced shipments of lactose and nonfat dry milk (NDM) but increased on a fat basis on increased shipments of butter.
For 2027, exports on a skim-solids basis are lowered on reduced shipments of NDM, while exports on a fat basis are raised on increased shipments of butter and cheese. Imports are increased on both a fat and skim-solids basis for 2026 due to increased shipments of butter, cheese, and milk proteins. Imports are also increased on a skim-solids basis for 2027 on increased shipments of milk proteins and prepared foods. Imports, however, are decreased on a fat basis on the expectation of reduced imports of butter in 2027.
For 2026, the price forecasts are decreased for butter and NDM but increased for cheese and whey to reflect recent prices. As a result, the Class III price forecast is raised, and the Class IV price is lowered. The all-milk price forecast for 2026 is lowered to $19.85 per cwt. For 2027, the price forecasts are lowered for butter, increased for whey, and unchanged for cheese and NDM. Consequently, the Class III price is increased, and the Class IV price is lowered. The all- milk price forecast for 2027 remains at $19.80 per cwt.
The full report may be found here https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde926.pdf
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