Milk production forecast for 2021 is lowered from last month as slower-expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets higher forecast cow numbers. However, the 2022 milk production forecast is raised from last month on higher cow numbers. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released on July 23rd, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.
Imports on both fat and skim-solids bases are raised for 2021 and 2022 on stronger expected imports of cheese and butterfat containing products. Exports on a skim-solids basis are also raised for 2021 and 2022, reflecting stronger exports of whey, skim/nonfat dry milk powder, and lactose. Fat basis exports are unchanged from last month.
For 2021, cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are lowered from last month on relatively high stocks and weaker-than-previously-expected demand. As a result, Class III and Class IV prices are lowered. The 2021 all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.30 per cwt.
For 2022, price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered on larger expected stocks and higher production, but price forecasts for NDM and whey are unchanged. With lower cheese and butter prices, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced and the 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $18.50 per cwt.
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