Note: The USDA confirmed the discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in a calf in Texas on June 3, 2026. Subsequently, additional cases have been identified in livestock and pets within the United States. In response to these NWS cases, the USDA and local state officials have implemented actions to contain and monitor the movement of the pest, including quarantines and movement controls of livestock in affected areas. Forecasts in this report reflect cases known and policies implemented at the time of publication.
Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories and milk per cow are raised for both 2026 and 2027.
For 2026, commercial export forecasts are raised on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis, primarily due to increased shipments of cheese, whey, and butter. For 2027, exports are raised on a fat basis due to higher butter shipments but lowered on a skimsolids basis due to less competitive dried skim milk products. Imports are unchanged on both a fat and skim-solids basis for 2026. For 2027, skim-solids basis imports are reduced from last month primarily due to less whey product imports, while fat basis imports are unchanged.
For 2026, the nonfat dry milk (NDM), cheese, and whey price forecasts are lowered from the previous month on recent price declines. The butter price is raised on stronger demand expected in the second half of the year. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts are both lowered. The all milk price forecast for 2026 is lowered to $20.70 per cwt. For 2027, the cheese price forecast is lowered, while whey prices are raised slightly. The price forecasts for NDM and butter are unchanged from the previous month. The Class III price forecast is unchanged as lower cheese prices are offset by higher whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is unchanged due to no changes in the butter or NDM price outlook. The all milk price forecast for 2027 is lowered to $20.90 per cwt.
Full Report: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0626v2.pdf
Be the first to comment