World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Dairy

Milk production for 2023 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow. The 2024 production forecast is lower due to a reduced average cow inventory for the year and slower growth in output per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the breeding herd.

Fat and skim-solids bases imports for 2023 are unchanged based on recent trade data. Fat and skim-solid bases imports for 2024 are lowered, based on lower expected cheese and butter fats imports. Exports on a fat basis for 2023 are lowered based on recent trade data. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised for 2023. For 2024, exports on a fat basis are raised as butter and cheese prices are expected to be more competitive on the world market. Skim-solids basis exports for 2024 are unchanged.

For 2023, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2024, prices for cheese are lowered due to recent price weakness, while butter, non-fat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are all expected to be higher. The Class III price is lowered, with lower cheese prices outweighing higher whey prices. Class IV prices are raised, due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The 2023 all milk price forecast is unchanged at $20.60 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is lowered to $20.00 per cwt.