World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Dairy

Milk production for 2024 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow based on the most recent Milk Production report. The 2025 production forecast is also lowered due to slower growth in output per cow. USDA’s Cattle report will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the milking herd.

Fat basis imports for 2024 are higher based on recent trade data. Skim-solids basis imports for 2024 are unchanged. Fat basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher expected cheese and butter imports. Skim-solid basis imports for 2025 are lowered based on lower expected casein and milk protein concentrate. Exports on a fat basis are higher for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and higher expected shipments of butter and cheese due to the U.S. price competitiveness of butter and cheese. Exports on a skim-solids basis are lowered for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and less competitive U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey.

For 2024, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are all expected to be higher due to less milk production and supportive demand. The Class III price is raised, with higher cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices are also raised, due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The 2024 all milk price forecast is lowered to $22.60 per cwt and the 2025 all milk price is raised to $23.05 per cwt.