Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged from last month. Higher expected imports of butter in 2024 support a higher fat-basis import forecast although cheese imports are forecast lower. Skim-solids basis imports are raised for 2023, reflecting higher imports of milk proteins. For 2024, lower cheese and milk protein imports result in a lower skim-solids import forecast. Exports in 2023 are reduced on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis with lower expected sales of butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and dry whey. For 2024, weaker expected sales of butter and dry whey are reflected in lower fat basis and skim-solids basis export forecasts.
Recent strength in butter prices and expectations of continued firm demand support an increase in the butter price for 2023. Cheese is reduced on current prices and continued large stocks while the NDM price is raised on current prices. The whey price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price is reduced, reflecting the lowered cheese price forecasts, but the Class IV price is raised on stronger butter and NDM prices. For 2024, price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised as price strength is expected to carry into the new year. The cheese price is reduced, but the whey price is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is reduced on the lower cheese prices while the Class IV price forecast is raised on higher butter price and NDM prices. The 2023 all milk price forecast is raised to $20.70 per cwt and the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.55 per cwt.
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