The milk production forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered from last month. The cow inventory is lowered for both years based on the July 1 dairy cow inventory and heifer retention data provided in the recent Cattle report, as well as the average cow inventory data in the latest Milk Production report. Output per cow is reduced for 2023 but unchanged for 2024. Fat and skim-solids bases imports for 2023 are lowered from last month on weaker expected imports of cheese and butter. For exports, the 2023 fat basis export forecast is lowered due to lower exports of cheese, butter and butterfat products, and whole milk powder. The skim-solids export forecast is lower due primarily to weaker sales of whey products. Exports for 2024 are also reduced on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis reflecting lower expected sales of butter, cheese, whey, and lactose. Imports for 2024 are reduced slightly on both fat and skim-solids bases, with weaker expected imports of cheese, butter, and casein.
Forecasts for 2023 butter and cheese prices are raised from the previous month based on recent price strength. Whey price forecasts are lowered for 2023, as global demand remains weak. The forecast for nonfat dry milk (NDM) is raised slightly for 2023. The Class III price is raised as the higher cheese price more than offsets lower whey. The 2023 Class IV price forecast is raised due to higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price for 2023 is raised to $19.95 per cwt. For 2024, butter and cheese price forecasts are raised with the strength in prices carrying over from the previous year. Whey prices are lowered, while the NDM forecast is unchanged. The Class III price is raised as stronger cheese prices more than offset lower whey prices. The Class IV price is raised based on higher butter prices. The all milk price is raised to $19.35 per cwt.
To view the full report, go to: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0823.pdf
Be the first to comment