World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates March 2025

USDA

NOTE: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place. U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.

The milk production forecast for 2025 is reduced on lower expected output per cow more than offsetting slightly higher cow inventories. Imports are unchanged on a fat basis and reduced on a skim-solids basis.

Exports are lowered on a fat basis, primarily due to lower cheese exports. On a skim-solids basis, exports are lowered due to lower expected shipments of cheese, dry skim milk products, and lactose. Domestic use is increased on both a fat and skim-solids basis. Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are all lowered on recent prices. The Class III price is lowered on the lower price expectations for cheese and whey. The Class IV price is also reduced due to lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price estimate for 2025 is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.

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