October 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month on slightly less growth in milk per cow. The milk production forecast for 2025 is also reduced on slower growth in milk per cow.

The fat basis import forecast for 2024 is raised on higher expected imports of primarily cheese and butter. Fat basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher cheese and butter imports. Skim-solids imports are unchanged for 2024 but raised for 2025 on higher imports of cheese and a number of other dairy products. The fat basis export forecast for 2024 is unchanged, but exports for 2025 are raised on higher butter shipments. The skim-solids export forecast for 2024 is raised on higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but the 2025 forecast is lowered on weaker competitiveness for NDM and whey.

Recent declines in butter and cheese prices are reflected in lower 2024 and 2025 price forecasts. NDM and whey prices are raised for both years on recent price strength and expected demand strength. The Class III price forecasts are lowered for both 2024 and 2025, as price declines in cheese more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV price forecasts are also lower than the previous month for both 2024 and 2025, with lower butter prices partially offset by higher NDM prices. The all milk price forecast for 2024 is lowered to $22.80 per cwt and the 2025 forecast is lowered to $22.75 per cwt.