World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates: Dairy

The milk production forecast for 2024 is lowered from last month, based on slower growth in milk per cow more than offsetting higher cow numbers. The milk production forecast for 2025 is also reduced from last month, as slower growth in milk per cow more than offsets a larger cow inventory.

For 2024, commercial exports are raised on a fat basis but lowered on a skim-solids basis. The higher fat basis exports primarily reflect increased butter and cheese shipments. The reduction in skim-solids basis exports reflects lower nonfat dry milk (NDM) and lactose. For 2025, commercial exports are reduced on both a fat basis and a skim-solids basis. For 2024, fat basis imports are raised based on higher expected imports of butter and butterfat products. On a skim-solids basis, imports are lowered on a number of products. For 2025, imports are unchanged on a fat basis but reduced on a skim-solids basis.

For 2024, prices of cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised from the previous month’s forecast based on recent price strength and an expectation of tighter milk supplies. The Class III and

Class IV price forecasts are raised on the higher dairy product prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to $22.25 per cwt.

With tighter milk supplies, the stronger prices forecast for 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025. Butter, cheese, NDM, and whey prices are all increased from last month’s forecast. The Class III and Class IV milk prices are raised based on higher product prices. The all milk price forecast is raised to $22.50 per cwt.